[small Metal Summit] Di Juqing: 5G commercialization drives germanium demand germanium prices continue to rise

SMM net news: "in the future with 5G commercialization, will further stimulate germanium demand, germanium prices continue to rise." On May 24-26, at the "2018 small Metal Industry Summit" held in Nanning, Guangxi, Mr. Di Juqing, project manager of Guangdong leading dilute Materials Co., Ltd., predicted the future germanium price.

Future development trend

Price trend:

Di Juqing said germanium prices bottomed out in 2017, with domestic germanium ingots rising 38 per cent to 9450 yuan / kg and domestic germanium dioxide rising 19 per cent to 6250 yuan / kg. From the historical price trend, the domestic germanium price is around 6000 yuan / kg three times, the high point is more than 12000 yuan / kg in 2015, and about 9000 yuan / kg is the price center. The price increase in 2017 is mainly due to the closure of smelters caused by strict environmental inspection, the active reduction of production by germanium mining enterprises, and the strong demand in the downstream optical fiber and health care field. with the commercialization of 5G in the future, germanium demand will be further boosted, and germanium prices will continue to rise.

Upstream raw materials:

From the current situation of the development of the whole industry, the upstream refining technology is less difficult, but the environmental protection needs to be regulated, the pressure is the greatest; The deep processing technology of the intermediate link is difficult, the preparation technology of high purity germanium is high, and it is also the profitable part of the industrial chain, but the germanium industry of our country is the weakest in this link. However, the downstream application field involves a wide range of categories, with rapid technical iterations, it is very difficult to maintain profitability, mainly because the demand side is vulnerable to the impact of the market.

In the context of supply-side reform and environmental inspection, the shutdown of large overseas mines, if lead-zinc and lignite manufacturers in the policy changes leading to production reduction, will become a key factor affecting industrial development. At present, the prices of major non-ferrous metals are maintained at a high level, which will stimulate the production enthusiasm of enterprises, but the environmental protection safety supervision will be further strict, and the production increment of by-product germanium will be very limited.

Downstream products:

At present, the development focus of germanium industry is still in the downstream application field, in which germanium is widely used in optical fiber, catalyst, solar cells and infrared optics and other fields. Germanium plays an important role in infrared optics, solar energy and optical fiber. the market demand of optical fiber is gradually accelerating. the increasing popularity of solar cells will lead to a stable rise in the price of germanium.

According to foreign defense reports, the global military optoelectronic / infrared system market will reach $16.35 billion in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.71 per cent. The military photoelectric / infrared system market has great potential in the development of new technology, and the growth trend is stable. It is estimated that the potential germanium demand in China is 258 tons in military and 280 tons in civil field. measured by the replacement cycle of infrared thermography products for 6 ~ 8 years, the average annual market demand for germanium is 77 tons. Infrared optical applications will be the most important growth point of germanium demand in the future, representing the future growth direction of germanium.

At present, the application market of germanium dioxide as catalyst is mainly in Japan, and the amount of germanium used in PET production in China is relatively small, but with the enhancement of people's awareness of environmental protection and health, The domestic demand for germanium dioxide is expected to increase slightly and remain stable in the next three years, with an annual consumption of about 23 tons.

Di Juqing expects that the demand for optical fiber will continue to grow steadily in the future. In 2017, the global amount of germanium used in optical fiber was about 41 tons. Over the next five years, it will reach 47 to 54 tons per year.

First, with the support of China's policy, the optical fiber communication industry continues to maintain rapid development. Mainly the "integration of the three networks", the issuance of "4G licences" and "Belt and Road Initiative", "Internet +" and "the establishment of the AIIB" have all played a boost role in the development of optical fiber communications. Second, although developed countries have experienced the peak of optical fiber construction, there are still large consumer markets in developing countries. According to CRU projections, demand in regions such as South-East Asia, Africa and Latin America will grow at a compound annual rate of more than 12 per cent by 2018. Germanium-based solar cells stand out in the space field. At present, the germanium substrate compound semiconductor stack battery in the global space solar cell is more than 80%, and will increase to 95% in the future. Depending on the small difference of the satellite, each ordinary satellite needs about 6,000 to 15,000 germanium wafers for high-efficiency solar cells, and tens of thousands of germanium wafers for solar energy in each large satellite. The number of germanium wafers needed for the establishment and maintenance of the space station is even greater.

Changes in global fibre optic cable shipments and demand: